Trading plan for Sept. 30, 2015

ESZ5 Daily chart, Sept. 29, 2015

ESZ5 Daily chart, Sept. 29, 2015

ES had an oversold bounce yesterday. During regular trading hours, the ES tried to hold above the overnight low and several times pushed the price above 1875 – the option expiration game balance point for today.

Unfortunately for the longs sellers stepped in and sold every rally to the end of the day. At the close the ES made a modest 2.5 point gain and closed right at the opening price to form a doji.

Today is the last day of September. It is possible to see a continuation of the oversold bounce . Whether ES is able to close near 1900 line or 1875 line, will largely depend on remarks the Fed chair is scheduled to make at 2 pm today

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The bearish pattern (A-B-C correction) remains intact for the intermediate term. But the ultra-short-term has a very oversold condition. An oversold bounce is likely today. Price could bounce up to 1900-1915 zone if Fed gives any hint of a future stimulation plan. Otherwise ES may continue to go sideways for consolidation within yesterday’s range and close near the 1875 line again.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Bearish
LONG-TERM === Neutral

Support and resistance

The major support levels: 1850-45, 1830-25, 1800-06, 1775-85, 1750-55
the major resistance levels: 1931-28.50, 1945-55, 1998.75-95.50