ESZ5 Sept. 23, 2015

ES spent most of the time on both sides of the regular market opening price yesterday. The market seems to be waiting for something, perhaps today’s Durable Goods orders or the Jobless Claim report, or maybe the speech by Fed Chair Yellen after the close today. In any case there was not much change today.

ES broke below the triangle pattern and stayed below its broken support line. It could go sideways due to the ultra-short-term oversold condition. But for the longer time-frame, it is still very clear that the Bears are taking control of the trend. There are only five trading days left in September. The end-of-month re-balance from the institutional traders may continue to dominate US equity price movement. The CHOP is inevitable.

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1941.25-44.25 will remain the first key resistance zone and 1952-55.50 the next one. As long as ES stays under the key zone the odds still favor the downside. But 1900 will be psychology support. As long as it holds ES up, the price should be held above it for Friday’s option expiration. As a trader, the major short-term trend is down and we should focus on the short side if/when there is brief bounce.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Neutral
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support an resistance

The major support levels: 1900-03.50, 1975-80, 1850-45;
the major resistance levels: 1998.75-95.50, 2012.50-2013.50 2032-2035