ESZ5 daily chart

ES went back and forth inside last Friday’s trading range to digest Fed member Dennis Lockhart’s speech about a possible rate hike in October. We will hear more from him today and tomorrow again before Mrs Yellen speaks on Thursday.

ES struggled to push the price back above the 1972-1961 zone. Whether it can succeed or not depends on Ms. Yellen’s speech Thursday and Friday’s GDP report. Since 1950 line traded in August, this line replaced 2055 line of first half this year. There were not many days that ES closed above it in September. We expect 1950 will be the pivot line for a while.

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Today 1972 will remain as the first major resistance line. Above it, there is an unfilled gap at 1977.25. 1935.50-33 will be first support zone, which overlaps the uptrend line from the wedge triangle pattern. ES could run stops outside of this pattern. But at the end, we still expect ES will return 1950 area.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Neutral
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

The major support levels: 1933-29.50, 1900-03.50, 1975-80, 1850-45
the major resistance levels: 1998.75-95.50, 2012.50-2013.50 2032-2035