Trading plan for Sept. 18, 2015

150917-ES-daily

ESZ5 Daily chart, Sept. 17, 2015

ES ran up strongly before the FOMC policy announcement, anticipating that the interest rate would not be increased this time. The price not only moved past the August 28 high at 1993.00, it made a high at 2011.75 – just below the 50-day moving average – during the Fed Chair’s press conference.

But after that initial excitement, traders began to “sell the news” and the market turned around and went south. After a big spike on heavy volume during the press conference, the ES gave back all of the gain and closed 10 points in the red. Classic pump and dump.

Member content

Download the full trading plan here: 150918-plan

Today is the quadruple witching expiration day. The September contract will expire at the open.

After the market opens, the ES could be free to move even more. It can go up to retest yesterday’s high, but it can also go lower. A lot depends on how the overnight trading goes. 2002-04 and 2012-15 are current resistance areas and 1965.50 and 1950-55 will be current support. 1983.75 is today’s key line. Above it, ES could move up to test yesterday’s high; stay below it, and the ES could go lower toward 1965.50. Anything can happen today due to the expiration day.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Neutral
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

The major support levels: 1950-45, 1900-03.50, 1975-80, 1850-45
the major resistance levels: 1998.75-95.50, 2012.50-2013.50 2032-2035