ES had a continuation low before the US market opened, but soon regained control of last Friday’s low and squeezed up to 2156 before falling back a little to close high. It recovered almost 75% of Friday’s loss.

The bounce could result from rollover action: the buyers who left the expiring September contract returning to the lower level of December contract.

But daily PMO and slow STO didn’t turn up. That means yesterday’s bounce should not change Friday’s selling direction.

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Today 2159.50-57.50 will be a key zone to watch. Staying under this key zone will lead ES back down again.

2100-03 remains a strong support. Above it, the 2115 level is last Friday’s low. As long as ES holds price above it, buyers will continue showing up and try to push the price up.

Unless there is some particular news influencing the price, ES should stay inside yesterday’s range for consolidation. Daily volatility will be high. The $VIX option expires today, which could drag market down again.

Outlook

Short-term === Neutral
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2146.50-43.75, 2135-33, 2120-21, 2112-14.50, 2103-01.25
Major resistance levels: 2156.50-58, 2175-78.50, 2193.50-95.75, 2199.50-98.50