Trading plan for Oct. 2, 2016

161101-es-daily

ESZ6 Nov. 1, 2016. Daily chart.

ES broke its intermediate-term uptrend line yesterday and closed under it. The price action was bearish. The volume supports the declining.

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Today 2121-17.50 (the broken support area) will act as a resistance zone. A stay under it triggers the intermediate-term correction.

But the FOMC rate announcement will be a key issue. ES could have a decent bounce after announcement, but the bounce shouldn’t change the short-term direction.

The major resistance zone area at 2135.50-39.50 zone will try to hold ES down possibly until the price reaches the long-term major support line at 2075-65.

Ultra-short- term indicators have an extremely oversold condition, so a brief bounce should be expected sometime today. But short-term indicators are not yet oversold, and the intermediate-term indicators especially are just starting to move away from overbought territory. They have lots of room to go down.

The downtrend is likely not be changed before the middle of November. Because of election uncertainties, investors are likely to sell before they ask questions. Therefore, a short-the-rally strategy is likely to be operating for a while.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
Medium-term === Bearish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2092-93.50, 2075-65, 2050-56.50
Major resistance levels: 2141-39.50, 2156.50-58.50, 2164-62.50