ESZ5 Daily chart, Sept. 30, 2015

ES had a re-balance bounce yesterday to mark the end of the month and the end of the third quarter. Price gapped up strong at open and managed to hold the gain to close above the 1900 level. The volume was lighter than the prior day, but price action was bullish.

Today is the first trading day of October. The classical bullish end and beginning of the month may continue to hold the ES up. The major resistance zone 1914.25-19.50 is ahead of the current price.

To make any further advance the ES needs a follow-through move today. Otherwise the price could repeat Wednesday’s range by going sideways to consolidate yesterday’s rally.

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There is an unfilled gap at 1919.25 ahead. A move above 1912.50 level could lead ES to move up to fill that gap. But below the current price, there is an unfilled gap from yesterday at 1874.50. A break below 1883.75 could push ES back down to fill that gap.

For the short-term, we should still expect to see some oversold bounce today and tomorrow. But as long as ES doesn’t close above 1950 on Friday, the short-term trend remains down.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Bearish
LONG-TERM === Neutral

Support and resistance

The major support levels: 1850-45, 1830-25, 1800-06, 1775-85, 1750-55;
the major resistance levels: 1931-28.50, 1945-55, 1998.75-95.50