Trading plan for Nov. 5, 2015

151104-ES-daily

ESZ5 Daily chart

ES spent lots of time struggling to hold up the 2100 level before Mrs. Yellen testified before Congress. As usual, the Fed did not give a direct answer:

“It could be appropriate in December to hike rates. No decision has been made on whether to hike in December.”

This kind of ambiguity made the market nervous. Some small selling pressure increased, but still it was not too bad. ES was able to hold above the prior day’s low (2090.50) for the close.

Six more Fed members will give speeches today. If any one of them actually says something it could move the market.

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Now the short-term has an extremely overbought condition. Sentiment was slightly bearish on yesterday’s closing. We may continue to see a small pullback in early sessions. But we still should expect 2075-73 support will hold ES up today.

2089 is the first line to indicate if ES should go lower or not. A move below it could push ES down toward 2082-80.50 or lower toward 2073-75 zone to attempt filling the 2073 unfilled gap. On a failure to break 2089 line, ES still has a chance to move back near 2100-05 today.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2064-62, 2055-56.50. 2014.50-12.50, 2005-02.75
Major resistance levels: 2114.50-16.50, 2112.75-23.50, 2131.50-29.75