The ADP employment data was below expectations in the morning. Then the speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen didn’t deliver what the Street wanted to hear — no mention of monetary policy at all. That disappointment sent the market lower, breaking through the ultra-short-term uptrend line and leading to a subsequent close below it. That was an emotion-driven move.

Today 2085-88.75 returns as the first resistance zone. If that resistance fails to Hold the price down it could trigger a short squeeze and push the price back up to 2096.50-2100 zone. Today 2075 is the key line. Remaining below it will give the impression that the rectangle bottom is likely to be retested again. A further down selling should be expected if ES fails to move above the 2079.50-80.50 zone in the morning session and later moves back below 2075 line.

There have been several false breakout in the past. ES gave a clear upside breakout based on price, but the next day failed to follow through, resulting in a price reversal. We still don’t know if the downside break-down is real or a fake.

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