ES had a further down day, the fifth in succession, but managed to hold above the 40-day moving average line for closing. It was a day of struggle.

Today the Non-farm payroll report will be released before the market opens and will surely move the market.

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The 2037-2035 zone, which overlaps the 40-day moving average line, will be one key area.

Holding above it could lead the ES to make a strong bounce up to 2060-62.50 or higher up to 2070-75.

But failing to hold it could trigger a strong sell-off and push the price down near the 2000 level. The direction should be determined by the non-farm payroll report, which means we should have some indication before the open.

The daily PMO indicator moves into the neutral area, but is still holding a short-term sell signal. But the STO indicator approached the oversold area.

If both indicators fail to bounce, the oversold can get more oversold, and ES could go much lower than we expect. In any case today’s price action should be strong in one direction.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2021-23.50, 2009-07.50, 2000-1997
Major resistance levels: 2076-75, 2085-83, 2099.50-2103.50, 2108-10.50

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