Trading plan for May 20, 2015

150519-ES-dailyES reached historic highs yesterday, but it couldn’t hold the gain; instead it closed two points lower than the previous day’s close.

Today all eyes will focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. The Street continues to worry that the Fed may choose to lift interest rates sooner rather than later, and that a rate increase will spoil the current rally. Uncertainty kills stock markets, and traders are looking to the Fed to comfort their anxiety. Otherwise they are likely to start taking some of their chips off the table.

Despite the new high there was no real follow-through yesterday. We still need to see some final confirmation that the breakout is real. A failure to return to yesterday’s high will lead ES to drop and test the daily momentum support at the 2103-2106 zone.

If ES can hold above 2116.50-12.50 zone during overnight trading, it has a chance to go back up to 2133.50-35.50 area, the Globex high. But we should expect to see some profit taking at that level.

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