ESH6 March 8, 2016. Daily chart.
ES had a gap down at the open and the price remained below the 1993.75 level for the day. The ES lost 18 points yesterday
The short-term overbought condition led the ES make a short-term pullback move: no surprise there. We could continue down to the 1950 level before this minor pullback is completed.
Yesterday’s unfilled gap will be a key. As long as this gap is open, the odds will favor a downside move until the ES proves it can hold up the 1950 level.
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The 200-day moving average line will remain as a major resistance area, and 1950 level area will remain as a major support.
It is possible that 1975 will be where the SPX chops around for the “Wednesday Weekly” option expiration.
1968.75, which was a breakout level on March 1, also overlaps the 10-day moving average line and will likely will act as the first intraday support. 1995.50-93.75 should be the first intraday resistance.
A break above 1995.50 could push the ES to fill the 1999 gap. And a move below 1966.50 could lead ES down to the 1960.50-55 zone for testing.
Outlook
Short-term === Bullish with overbought condition
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Neutral
Support and resistance
Major support levels: 1960.50-62.50, 1950.50-52, 1928-30, 1912.50-11.25
Major resistance levels: 2007.50-08, 2018.50-23.75, 2033-35.50, 2050-55, 2075-77