Trading plan for March 29, 2016


ESM6 Mar. 28, 2016. Daily chart.

European and Canadian markets were closed yesterday and the ES had very thin trading volume as a result. The day ended down two ticks from the previous close.

The 2039.75-37.50 area showed moderate resistance. There was some mild weakness, but mainly we saw more dip buying above the 200-day moving average line.

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Today is the T+3 for the end of first quarter, when large investors need to clear their books of positions they don’t want to show in their end-of-quarter results.

Market statistics suggest a moderately positive outcome today after modestly negative Monday, but we are expecting some selling into the end of the quarter as portfolios are re-balanced.

Our strategy for today is SHORT on strength and buy on weakness. However Fed chair Yellen (and two of her colleagues) are speaking today and as always that can move the market.


Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Neutral

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2000.50-2003.50, 1989-87.50, 1978-75.50
Major resistance levels: 2043.75-2045.50, 2056-58, 2075-77, 2085-88


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