ES had a big drop at the Globex open, reacting to the news that Greece is closing banks and the stock market this week. Even though the price bounced overnight from our yearly pivot level, it quickly found the resistance zone at 2083-86 after the day session opened. At the end ES closed poorly, down 45.25 points from last Friday’s closing on heavy volume.
Now 2086.25 becomes a major resistance line and 2057 is the monthly range breakdown point, which will turn into today’s key line. A move above 2064 will suggest that 2055-57 will return as a temporary support for this pullback. But staying below 2064 at the end of the month will be bearish. It is then likely for ES to go down further to retest the 2043-37 zone or lower to fill several unfilled gaps at 2030 and 2021-17.
Here is the member content for Tuesday.
The 200-day moving average line was holding the ES up in the last 30 minutes of trading. The price action was bearish at the closing. Today we may see a consolidation move first to balance out yesterday’s ultra-short-time frame oversold condition.
However a warning signal has been given that the ES could start its intermediate-term correction soon. After a brief consolidation today, we want to see a follow-through to the downside to confirm the start of the correction. Without it, ES could bounce sharply from either the 200-day moving average line or the long-term rising uptrend line (red).
Short-term — Bearish
MEDIUM TERM — Bullish
LONG-TERM — Bullish
The major support levels: 2043-30, 2017-21, 2006-03, 1980-75
the major resistance levels: 2085-86, 2093.75-95.50, 2105-06, 2112.50-14.50
Download the full trading plan here: 150630-plan