Trading plan for June 15, 2016

160614-ES-daily

ESU6 June 14, 2016. Daily chart.

ES gapped down at the open under the influence of the sell-off in the European market. But after the price touched its daily momentum support line (40ema), it managed to bounce and closed one point below the open, but about four points below the previous close.

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Download link: (160615-ES-plan.pdf, 282KB)

 

Today the range from 2080 to 2055 becomes the first fighting zone. The Bears will try to defend 2080-83, the resistance zone; Bulls will try to hold up price above 2053.50-50.50, the support zone.

If either side fails, it could promote a large stop run. The climactic event of the day will be the Fed policy announcement and subsequent press conference, starting at 2:00 p.m.

The daily PMO indicator gave a “selling” signal yesterday and has a short-term bearish outlook. But after four days declining, ES could have a brief bounce if 2050 level manages to be held up.

Especially if the price goes down first before the Fed announcement, it is likely for the price to bounce after the Fed rate announcement.

Also Wednesday Index option expires today, the VIX option has its front-load today after yesterday’s June contract expiration. All this will add volatility to the market.

Outlook

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Neutral
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2055.50-53.50, 2043.50-42, 2035.50-32
Major resistance levels: 2093.50-95.50, 2100-03.50, 2114-15.50

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