The Street assumed that the Fed’s silence on raising interest rates in 2015 means no rate hike this year. That may not be true, but it put the ES back into its bullish cycle; it now attempting to hold the price above the key 2100 psychology line.
Today is the last day of July. The month-end closing will give the outlook for next week and next month. It is likely to be bullish for the first week if the ES closes above the 2106 level today. It is likely to be bearish if the ES fails to close above that level but instead closes below 2090. We definitely will see the bulls and bears fighting today for the closing price.
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The volume was low yesterday. The momentum strength on the upside was weaker than the day before. Traders need to be cautious if the early session still has weaker momentum. In this situation, the price will often fall in the last hour of trading.
There are buy stops resting above the 2104.50 line, and if they are hit the shorts will be squeezed and the price could be pushed up to the 2113-16 zone. Buyers need to hold the price above 2093.50 in order to attempt to break out above 2104.50. Failure to hold above 2093.50 line, could drop the ES back to the 2082-2078.50 zone to search for the next support area.
Short-term — Neutral
MEDIUM TERM — Bullish
LONG-TERM — Bullish
The major support levels: 2054-55, 2035-32, 2025-23.50, 2018.50-16.50
the major resistance levels: 2128.50-29.50, 2134.50-36.50 and none