Trading plan for July 29, 2015

150728-ES-DailyES bounced yesterday after declining for five days. But this time it may just be short covering holding the ES up temporarily while traders wait for today’s announcement from the FOMC meeting.

Today the area around 2090.50-2092 is the conjunction of all three momentum lines. It is also the decision point where the market will reveal if it intends to go back up to the 2100-2110 zone or back down to retest the 200-day moving average line. The Fed policy statement is likely to have a large influence on that decision.

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Here is the member content for Wednesday. Download the full trading plan here: 150729-plan

The 2078-2089 zone could be the trading range for the overnight and morning sessions. But after the Fed announcement, all movement will be a response to the Fed statement. The consensus is that the Fed will not hike rates this time, but may hint more strongly about next time.  The algos will be pushing the price around dramatically, and almost anything can happen. Stay cautious.

Short-term — Neutral
MEDIUM TERM — Bullish
LONG-TERM — Bullish

The major support levels: 2054-55, 2035-32, 2025-23.50, 2018.50-16.50
the major resistance levels: 2128.50-29.50, 2134.50-36.50 and none

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