Trading plan for July 20, 2016

160719-ES-daily

ESU6 July 19, 2016. Daily chart.

The rally that has pushed the ES up 180 points since the end of June stalled for a second day Tuesday. The price has fallen back from the recent high at 2168 and the daily trading range is contracting.

Yesterday the ES formed the narrowest daily range since May 26, 2016. The market is flattening. What happens next?

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The long-term trend is up and remains bullish. So is the intermediate-term. It seems no one is worried about a correction in short-term, just lack of energy to push prices further up.

Both the Bulls and the Bears are defending their key levels: the Bears are attempting to hold the price below the 2168 resistance level; the Bears are attempting to keep the price above the 2145 support. So far both are successful.

Today’s trading may continue this way. But we can’t rule out a fake breakout move.

On the upside, 2162.50 is a control line for an upside breakout with a target 2172-71. On the downside, 2149 is a control line for a break down with a target at 2141-40.

Regardless of any movement outside the current 2168-2145 range, any breaks today will attract opposition. A dip into the 2141-40 zone will be bought and pop up to 2172-71 will be sold today.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and Resistance

Major support levels: 2120-21, 2112-14.50, 2100-1997.50
Major resistance levels: 2169-72, 2179-78.50, 218850-87, 2195.50-93.50

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