Trading plan for July 1, 2015

150630-ES dailyES had an up-and-down day. After a big bounce start, it slipped down again until mid-day, then recovered slightly into the close,for a 4-point gain for the day. But for the month, it lost 51.50 points.

Today we have plenty of economic reports in the morning. Based on the monthly closing price, so far the market hasn’t given a final confirmation of the broken yearly pivot level. ES may go back up on the first day of month, plus Greece may call off Sunday’s scheduled referendum in exchange for aid. The US market may follow European market for a small bounce.

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 Here is the member contnent for Wednesday.

The 200-day moving average line at the 2047 level will continue to be an important support line. A break below it will not only confirm that yearly pivot is broken, it will also confirm that the monthly range low is broken. It could trigger the selling momentum and push ES lower towards 2030 (unfilled gap) and 2018.50 or the final monthly range breakdown target at 1980 area.

Holding above the 200-day moving average line, could lead the ES to repeat yesterday’s range and bounce up to retest yesterday’s high around 2066.50 or higher up to 2083-85 zone.

In any case the ES shouldn’t go up to fill 2095.50 gap. And as long as this 2095.50 gap is not filled, the short-term trend is down.

Short-term — Bearish
MEDIUM TERM — Bullish
LONG-TERM — Bullish

The major support levels: 2043-30, 2018-21, 2006-03, 1980-75;
the major resistance levels: 2085-86, 2093.75-95.50, 2105-06, 2112.50-14.50,

Download the full trading plan here: 150701-plan

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