ES mainly went sideways for consolidation on Thursday. Overnight the price was pushed up to anticipate an ECB rate announcement and news conference before the US market opened. Later ES just went back and forth around the 1861 level to struggle for the close.

There is not much change in the short-term direction. The bounce is still the result of an oversold condition. The major short-term direction remains down as long as ES stays under the 1950 level.

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Today is weekly option expiration. 1860-55 will be a choppy zone. Overnight ES could run up to 1870-69.75 or higher up to yesterday’s high area 1883.25 (short entry) for testing.

As long as ES stays under 1882.50 the price still can pullback down to the 1865-55 zone. 1843-42 will be first support. A move below it could lead ES down toward 1835.50-33 to retest last year’s low area.

Even though ES was strong in the early sessions, in the afternoon it started to show weakness again. That means ES still has a chance to retest previous low today or next Monday.

Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Bearish
LONG-TERM === Neutral

Major support levels: 1830-1825, 1816-1818, 1800-1795
Major resistance levels: 1929.50-32.50, 1956.50-57.50, 1970-65.50

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