Trading plan for Jan. 12, 2016

ESH6 Daily chart

ESH6 Daily chart

ES has an oversold bounce. This small bounce is not material. It shouldn’t change the short-term downside direction. Instead, the death cross of the 50 and 200-day moving averages gave a selling signal for the longer term. This is a much serious matter for the investors.

The last time we saw the 50-day moving average cross below the 200-day moving average line was in August. It is possible for that signal to be reversed, but it depends on how strong the ES bounce is and how it reacts at the 1975 line.

The oversold bounce yesterday was not strong. The volume was lighter than last Friday’s volume. As soon the oversold bounce is complete, ES is likely to resume the downside movement again.

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