Trading plan for Feb. 17, 2016

ES moved up strongly overnight and gapped up for the open. It fell back but found support at the 1870 area before the European market closed. It then reversed back to the earlier high and closed near the top of the trading range.

The PMO indicator gave a short-term buying signal. This bounce looks like an intermediate-term correction. The price could be pushed up to 1925-35 or higher up to the 200-day moving average line, which would be a reasonable intermediate-term correction move in a down move.. A retracement, if it occurs, could last for several days.

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Today’s outlook

160216-ES-daily

ESH6 Daily Chart. Feb. 16, 2016

Today we have the FOMC minutes which will be the center of attention.

Yesterday’s unfilled gap is important. As long as this gap remains unfilled, the odds will favor the upside. We could see a strong trend day caused by shorts covering.

Above yesterday’s close and just above yesterday’s high, there is a resistance zone at 1893.75-95.50. A break above it could push the price up to the 1907.50 area. If the upside momentum is strong the price could move back toward the monthly open in the 1929.75 area.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Neutral
LONG-TERM === Neutral

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 1800-1790, 1785-75.50
Major resistance levels: 1893.50-97, 1906.50-08, 1915.50-18, 1929.50-31

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