Trading plan for Dec. 4, 2015

ESZ5 Daily chart

ESZ5 Daily chart

Yesterday the ES followed the German market down after the ECB press conference disappointed European traders expecting a increase in QE and a bigger decrease in interest rates.

The ES gave up the gain made in overnight trading, and broke the 20-day moving average support line and headed for the 40-day moving average. That was in the morning.

In the afternoon sessions, the growing perception that the San Bernadino killings were a terrorist attack sent the ES lower through the 40-day ema line and through the opening price for the year (2055) The price action was bearish. The volume was stronger on the selling side.

Member content

Download the full trading plan here: 151204-plan

Today all eyes will be on the non-farm payroll report before the market opens. Traders are looking for something that will confirm or deny the Fed talk about a rate increase in December. The current consensus is that the Fed will raise, but the consensus has been wrong before – as it was in Europe yesterday.

In technical terms, yesterday’s selling confirmed that 2105 is the short-term top. We may see a small brief bounce or a sideways movement to consolidate yesterday’s selling. The major resistance zone will be 2075-2078.50. ES needs to stay under this zone for a further decline next week.

2039 is the 200-day ema and 2065.50 is the 200-day sma. ES could travel between those two lines today.

A move below 2037.50 could lead ES to dip further toward 2032.75-31.50 or lower toward 2019-22. A break above 2066.50 could push ES up to 2070-75 zone to bail out the option Calls guys.


Short-term === Bearish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2050-45, 2030.50-32.50, 2019.50-22.50
Major resistance levels: 2088-89.50 2105-08, 2114.50-16.50, 2121-23.50


Comments are closed.