Trading plan for Dec. 1, 2015

ESZ5 daily chart

ESZ5 daily chart

ES had a minor pullback on the last day of November. The futures made a 0.03% gain for November alone, and 1.2% for the year so far.

Yesterday’s pullback didn’t do any damage to the outlook. The short-term trend remains up. And today is the first day of December, usually the best month of the year for stocks.

Yesterday the International Monetary Fund accepted the Chinese Yuan as part of the basket of currencies in its Special Drawing Rights, with a weighting higher than the British pound. We haven’t seen the overngith trading yet, but there may be some price action as a result.

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The first day of the month often has a bullish sentiment and especially so in December. There are also lots of economic reports in the morning sessions. The volatility will be high, and we expect to see buying on the dips.

There is an important line we need to watch, the broken four-year uptrend line. To move higher ES needs to break that line decisively and close above it. If it fails to do that, there is still a chance to pull back down to test the 20-day ema or lower to the 40-day ema line.

2079.50-2078.50 is a key zone for today. As long as ES doesn’t go under it, the buyers will continue pushing price back up. A break above 2095 will be bullish. A further rally and breakout above 2100 should then be expected.

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Major support levels: 2050-45, 2030.50-32.50, 2021.50-23.75
Major resistance levels: 2097-99, 2114.50-16.50