Trading plan for Aug. 9, 2016

160808-ES-daily

ESU6 Aug.8, 2016. Daily chart.

ES paused after last Friday’s rally, even though it made a new all-time high overnight Monday. It had the narrowest regular hour range – less than 9 points – since July 19. The volume was the lowest this year.

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The daily PMO indicator flattened, neither rising nor declining. But the slow STO popped up, and ES was able to hold up 2174 for closing, which suggests the internals are still building strength.

Today ES may dip to 2166-59.25 zone first to complete its back-fill before it resumes the rally. This week it could make a move like last week’s, when it retraced first for several days, and then recovered all the loss in a single day and closed at new highs.

At the current stage, the market sentiment is bullish. But $VIX is too low and scares away some buyers. Yesterday’s lack of follow-through after making a new high in overnight trading could be a temporary problem for the buyers.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and resistance

Major support levels: 2120-21, 2112-14.50, 2100-1997.50
Major resistance levels: 2181.50-83.50, 2188.50-90.75, 2195.50-97.50