Trading plan for Aug. 2, 2016

160801-ES-daily

ESU6 Aug. 1, 2016. Daily chart.

First day of August, ES made its best effort to make new highs during overnight trading, and touched 2177.75.

But the buyers couldn’t maintain the price, and it dropped to Nat’s key line after the open. It subsequently bounced back to her S1 level, dropped back to the key line again, then traded in a narrow range into the close for a minor loss on the day.

Nat’s calls captured about 10 points on the way up, and another 10 points on the way down, or roughly $1,000 per contract.

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Download link: (160802-ES-plan.pdf, 292KB)

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The struggle in the regular hour trading makes us worry that the ES may be preparing to have a short-term correction. Today 2150 will be the first major support. A failure to hold above it will confirm a short-term correction is on the way.

2173.50-75 will be first major resistance zone. As long as ES stays under it, a pullback down to retest 2159 or lower should be expected.

Daily PMO indicator is vulnerable to a move down, which could bring aggressive speculators into this market to push the price down. But the buyers may successfully defend the key support level again this time.

Outlook

Short-term === Bullish
MEDIUM TERM === Bullish
LONG-TERM === Bullish

Support and Resistance

Major support levels: 2150-46, 2120-21, 2112-14.50, 2100-1997.50
Major resistance levels: 2179-78.50, 2188.50-87, 2195.50-93.50