Trading plan for Aug. 12, 2015

150811-ES-dailyChina’s decision to devalue the yuan overnight had both European markets and the three major US indices trading lower from the start Tuesday. ES gave back more than two-thirds of Monday’s gain on the closing.

External events and news are driving the price. Today we have the president of the New York Fed, William Dudley, speaking at 8:30 a.m., before the day session opens. The market is hyper-sensitive to anything anyone from the Fed says (or doesn’t say) and we may get an early hint at the day’s direction.

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Download the full trading plan here: 150812-plan

Today ES could remain inside the triangle pattern on the daily chart, whipsawing back and forth around the 20/40ema lines until it finally breaks in one direction or the other. The 2100-04.50 area will be the resistance line for the triangle pattern, and 2062-59 will be the support. As long as ES stays inside the triangle, a small run up today and a small run down tomorrow would not be a surprise.

Short-term — Neutral
MEDIUM TERM — Bullish
LONG-TERM — Bullish

The major support levels: 2054-55, 2035-32, 2025-23.50, 2018.50-16.50
the major resistance levels: 2128.50-29.50, 2134.50-36.50 and none

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