There was no follow-through yesterday after ES had a big gain on low volume on Monday. Early in the morning, it looked like ES would have a third consecutive winning day, But at the end ES closed at a loss.

Today will see the release of the FOMC minutes in the middle of the session and the unofficial beginning of the earnings season. These external events (and others) will continue to influence market price movement.

For the ES there is a big triangle pattern on the daily chart; n addition the 20 and 40-day ema lines overlap each other and act as a price magnet. The price could continue dancing around those two lines in what may be a relatively wild move today or tomorrow.

The 2082.75-81.75 zone is today’s first major resistance zone. As long as this zone holds the market down, ES still has a chance to move back down to revisit 2039.50-43.50, which would fill last Friday’s Globex hole.

Only a break below the 135-day moving average line (currently 2033) will be truly bearish, and would then lead to a move to a lower low.

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