ES traded with losses for all morning session until Fed presidents started speaking around 1pm. It marched up and tried very hard to break the prior day’s high in the afternoon session. Unfortunately it failed and closed near 2100 level for a small gain. That could be related SP500 index option expiration. But today is April option expiration. It will be very interesting to see where ES can close.

With respect to the breakout, the volume still hasn’t increased on the buying side. Volume did not follow the price and the small brief run up or down on light volume was essentially the algos running stops on both sides. The lack of volume yesterday could lead today’s trading to have a narrow range day. But it also can have a breakout move if there is a particular news event which could influence the market.

Nevertheless a move above 2106.50 line could push ES up to 2110-12.50 or higher up to 2117.50-21 zone. As long as ES manages to hold above 2089 level, odds will still favor upside.

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