Gold swing trades – week of Oct. 17, 2016

Last week

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Gold mainly went sideways for consolidation from the prior week’s strong declining. Price closed up 3 more points for a net weekly gain, which means nothing.

Last week’s trades

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Gold futures Oct. 14, 2016. 60-minute bars.

After moving through a weekly range of almost $80 in the previous week, gold traders decided to take the week off. The range last week was only $13, on very light volume. Most of the price action was contained within a $10 range.

None of Nat’s entry and exit points were hit last week. The keyline/pivot was roughly $1273-78 and the support/buy level was $1222-33. The price never reached any of those areas.

There were a few day trades possible, but the swing trades just weren’t there. The week was a bust.

This week

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This section contains the specific buy/sell levels for this week. It is reserved for paid subscribers. Previous weekly swing trades are available free of charge in the archives.

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Gold futures Oct 14, 2016. Daily chart.

All eyes will focus on CCI report. If CCI has little change, Gold may continue going sideways, but favoring the upside. But if the data show a stronger-than-expected increase in CCI, the yellow metal will remain under pressure.

Two voting members of the Fed (Mr. Fischer and Mr. Dudley) are giving speeches this week, which may impact the GOLD price.
Technical speaking, the daily chart has a small triangle pattern. This is a bearish continuation pattern. Gold is still vulnerable to a downside move.

But short-term and intermediate-term PMO have an oversold condition. A brief bounce up to the recent broken support zone should still be expected in the following weeks if the price holds above $1245.

This week, $1262.50-65 will be a key zone. A move above it could lead GOLD up to test $1285-86.50 or higher to $1300-1295 – the broken neckline of the bearish double top formation (see chart).

A failure to break through that key zone should be bearish. The price could go back down to retest last week’s low area $1244-46.50 or lower toward $1220-25 A break below $1220 level could trigger an exhaustion declining move and push GOLD down toward $1205-10 to search for intermediate-term support.

Traders need to watch the early price direction carefully. If price goes up first in the early days, we are likely to see a price reversal later. The market sentiment still expect lower prices, but the immediate decline may be nearing exhaustion. We should expect a decent bounce from the $1200 area … if we get there.