Gold swing trades – week of Nov. 9, 2015

Last week


Gold futures. Weekly prices to Nov. 6, 2015

Gold took the hawkish remarks from various Fed speakers to heart last week. The prospect of a rate increase in December – made more plausible by a “good” Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday – led to a sharp sell-off all week, accelerating in Friday’s $20 dump. Gold futures broke below the $1100 support and closed poorly.

The price never reached Nat’s key line at $1147 or the pivot point at $1154 and broke through almost all resistance lines.on the way down. Some of Nat’s live-voice members got short early in the week, for profitable trades, but for once-a-week traders all of the buy-side trades were stopped out.

This was a continuation and acceleration of the gold sell-off that tarted in mid-October (see the daily chart insert in the chart below). The question for swing traders now is whether there will be a recovery from this dump and if so, where will it start. Nat discusses that in the member content below.

Here’s the annotated intraday chart:


Gold futures, Nov. 6, 2015. 60-minute bars

This week


Gold futures, weekly chart

In the short term, GOLD has an extremely oversold condition. After seven days of sharp declines, some profit-taking among the shorts may generate a little bounce. The $1140-50 zone becomes a major resistance zone for the coming days and weeks, perhaps for for the rest of this year.

The intermediate-term indicators have just moved from overbought to neutral, and they still have lots of room to move lower into an intermediate-term oversold condition. That indicates a bearish outlook for gold in that time-frame. We don’t expect any sustained rally until those indicators show oversold, and that could take some time.

Member content

Download the full trading plan here: 151109-gold-plan

$1072.30 (last July’s low) becomes a key line for this week. If GOLD can hold the price above this level, we could have an ultra-short-term oversold bounce. But this bounce, if it materializes, may be very brief. The $1103-08 zone will be first resistance zone on Monday. $1072 will be closely watched this week; a failure to hold this major support line could lead GOLD price lower.

Last week was a momentum breakout move. The price not only broke October’s low at $1103.80, it also broke September’s low $1097.70 and triggered a downside momentum run. This week, both those lines will act as intraday resistance to prevent the price from popping.

In order to begin a recovery, GOLD needs to move above that resistance and reach the $1118.50-$14.50 zone to make a little test of the broken daily momentum line (previous support, now become resistance) at $1125-28, where the short-term sellers are waiting.

Support and resistance

Long-term support: $1007-$1033.90 – Yearly breakout level from 2008- 2009
Long-term trendline: support at $1009.50 this week.
Intermediate term: support at $1045-1035 zone
Short-term: support at $1072-1095 zone.


Comments are closed.