Gold swing trades – week of July 25, 2016

Last week

160722-gold prices

Gold futures – weekly prices to July 22, 2016

GOLD had a continuation move lower last week. The short-term correction didn’t surprise anyone. But Gold did find its support around the 1310 level, which is above its 200-week moving average line.

Last week’s trades

160722-gold 60a

Gold futures July 22, 2016. 60-minute bars.

No gold trades last week. There were three tradeable moves in gold futures last week, but the price stayed within a relatively narrow range below Nat’s keyline, and above her first buy level.

Nat’s comments last week warned “As long as GOLD stays below [$1341.50-45] the price is likely to continue falling.” The price did stay below that key line and did continue falling, but never touched our entry levels, so we stayed on the sidelines.

This week

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160722-gold weekly

Gold futures July 2, 2016. Weekly chart.

The 1300-05 support zone becomes very important for this week. A breach of this support will push GOLD back into its February-May consolidation range (1306-1199). But Gold also can go sideways to try to hold above 1300 level.

The short time-frame has an oversold condition, so a brief bounce should be expected. But intermediate- and long-term charts are all approaching overbought territory, which is not a good news. At this point any short-term bounce could bring in more sellers.

Right now the 2014 high and the trendline drawn across the declining tops from the 2011 high is major overhead resistance, and GOLD walked away from that trendline July 11, 2016.

The weekly MACD histogram has a lower higher, which also indicates the buying interest was decreasing. It may result from the slow summer season. But that long-term resistance line shouldn’t be ignored.


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