Gold preview – week of June 15, 2015

Last week

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Gold futures, June 12, 2015

Last week GOLD had a minor oversold bounce but stayed within a narrow trading range. Most of the week it moved within a narrow band about 5 points above and below Nat’s key line for the week.

There was one decent trading opportunity: on Tuesday the price moved from a temporary support level through the key level and stopped within $1 of Nat’s first sell level. The following day the move reversed itself, and fell back through the Key line to the short-term support, before returning to the choppy back and forth around the Key Line for the rest of the week.

It was a little difficult to capture both sides of that move, but the move back down was well signaled. Traders who got both sides could have gained about $14 in each direction, so the total move was worth about $2,800 per contract.

Here is the annotated chart:

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Gold futures – 60-minute chart. June 12, 2015

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You can download the full analysis, with the buy/sell numbers, here: 150615-gold

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Gold futures, weekly chart

Gold is sitting near its decision zone, where it must either hold or dive. For a downside move, Gold needs to break the1162.50-60.50 zone to reach the lower destination near the unfilled gap at 1151.30 or lower toward 1143-40.

The weekly chart has a long-term wedge pattern. It is possible for GOLD to complete this pattern first before it can have a decent bounce again. But this week has FOMC meeting announcement. It will be difficult to predict which direction that GOLD will go this week.

To keep everything simple, traders need to focus on the resistance and support levels. They also need to be aware of the trigger points for potential movement.

The first resistance level is lying at 1196.50-1192.50 zone and first support level is lying at 1150-55 zone this week

The 1198.50 line will be the trigger point for stop runs to the upside and 1160.50 will be the trigger point for stop runs to the downside.

We expect volatility to be higher this week.

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